Global commercial real estate advisor Avison Young has released new data revealing that future supply is set to be constrained in the Big Nine office markets. Analysis shows that development completions are expected to fall over the next three years, tightening competition for high‑quality space and sustaining upward pressure on rents in key UK cities.

Across the Big Nine – which includes Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham, Bristol, Newcastle, Leeds, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Glasgow – constrained levels of supply have been a key driver of strong rental growth across the last two years. Limited speculative development, coupled with strong occupier demand, has intensified competition for best-in-class space.

Avison Young predicts that this supply constraint will persist, with Big Nine annual development completions forecast to average 911,000 sq ft per annum over the next three years (2026–28), representing a 48% reduction compared with the 10-year annual average of 1.8m sq ft.

One of the key factors suppressing both investor and developer activity is concern around viability. Build and financing costs continue to challenge scheme feasibility, despite the strength of occupier demand across the market. Even in historic regional development hotspots such as Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow, cautious developer and lender sentiment are apparent.

Meanwhile, in Cardiff and Liverpool, there are no completions planned for the next three years, lessening demand from incoming occupiers looking to move to the city, as well as occupiers hoping to move offices.

This tightening supply outlook reinforces Avison Young’s earlier finding that refurbishment is playing an increasingly central role in the Big Nine development pipeline, as occupiers and landlords adapt to a lack of new-build options.

Guy Spencer, Head of National Capital Markets at Avison Young, said:
“Construction and financing costs remain elevated, impacting on investor appetite and limiting speculative development, despite occupier demand holding firm. As a result, competition for best‑in‑class space is intensifying across the Big Nine.

“In some cities, the absence of any speculative pipeline is concerning. Occupiers are increasingly turning to refurbishment to meet their needs. Navigating these dynamics requires a clear understanding of local market conditions, where experienced advice can make a critical difference.

“While supply constraints are likely to persist, they also present an opportunity for occupiers, investors and landlords to think differently about how space is delivered and upgraded across the Big Nine. Targeted refurbishment, well‑timed investment and informed occupier strategies will be key to unlocking value in a tighter market.”

Read Avison Young’s data bite on Big Nine office completions in full here.