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Minneapolis-St. Paul Industrial Market Report (Mid-Year 2020)14 juil. 2020
Early impacts of COVID-19 are far-reaching, with disruption affecting every corner of the US economy. Over 30 million Americans filed for unemployment implying a jobless rate of around 22%. US gross domestic product turned negative for the first time since 2014. Output came to a near standstill and drove a deep contraction in consumer spending.
It is likely the US will continue to see a contraction of economic activity through the remainder of 2020, but we expect some signs of recovery to begin still this year.
The industrial market has remained relatively stable thus far during the COVID-19 pandemic. Rental rate growth has stalled, but a decrease in rates has not yet been seen. Markets considered last mile are expected to rebound faster as companies such as Target, Wal-Mart, Home Depot and Lowe’s continue to expand. Rental rates in these markets are anticipated to increase first as they will be in much higher demand by these essential companies.
E-commerce companies continue to drive demand, particularly, for build-to-suit distribution centers that are fully automated and increase supply-chain efficiencies. The supply-chain is beginning to see a switch from “just in case” to “just in time”. Proximity to their clients is more important now than ever before in order to get product back in the stores as fast as possible. Companies are seeing a surge in their inventory. For example, Amazon currently has 40% more inventory on hand than they did one month ago to keep up with the increased demand. Despite strong leasing and market indicators, the lack of available space limits the opportunity for growth. As a result, net absorption is down year-todate. Therefore the vacancy rate within the industrial market remains relatively unchanged.
Industrial investment activity is seeing a slight decline as many investors continue their “wait and see” approach to the pandemic. Transactions that are occurring were either already close to complete before the pandemic or are properties that investors believe are essential to growing their portfolio. Some of the larger players such as Blackstone, are continuing their aggressive investing.
In Minneapolis-St. Paul, investment sales totaled $1.0 billion in the first half of 2020. Portfolio sales accounted for more than 60% of total volume YTD, headlined by CSM Corporation’s portfolio sale of 4.6 million square feet (msf) across the Twin Cities. Blackstone purchased the 42-property portfolio for $435 million. Also worth mentioning, MetLife purchased the 820,000-sf Amazon Shakopee facility for more than $118 million or $145 per sf.
Across the metro area, nearly 1.4 msf of space has been delivered year-to-date, and more than 3.6 msf was under construction at the close of second quarter. More than 60% of those projects were concentrated in the Northwest submarket.